Crude trades into the Feb 9–13 window with three drivers stacked in a tight sequence: mid-week stock data, a fresh global outlook from energy watchdogs, and a macro kicker from U.S. inflation on Friday. Positioning is still light after January’s chop, so any clean surprise on inventories or demand can travel quickly through timespreads and energy beta.
What matters most
- Inventory pulse (API → EIA). Private estimates arrive late Tuesday U.S. time (early Wed CET), then the official read hits Wednesday 16:30 CET. Watch the crude/gasoline/distillate mix and refinery runs; a crude draw paired with product builds typically flags margin pressure and softer implied demand, while synchronized draws tend to steepen the front of the curve. American Petroleum Institute (API); U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
- Global balances reset (Thursday). The February Oil Market Report lands Thursday, Feb 12 and will update 1H26 demand/supply and stock cover. Traders will key on any China demand revisions and non-OPEC supply resilience (US, Brazil, Guyana). International Energy Agency (IEA).
- Macro shock absorber (Friday). U.S. January CPI at 14:30 CET can swing curves via real-yield moves and the dollar. A softer print usually eases financial conditions, supporting cyclicals and commodities; a hot print does the opposite. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Producer guidance backdrop. With the OPEC+ monitoring meeting already out of the way on Feb 1, the baseline is steady policy and an emphasis on quota discipline; any mid-month compliance chatter will still color sentiment but the calendar is otherwise light. OPEC.
Trading playbook by theme
- Stocks vs. runs: Into Wednesday, focus on the trio of crude stocks, product stocks, and refinery utilization. A crude draw + product draws + higher runs is the most bullish configuration for timespreads; crude build + gasoline build into driving-season prep is the cleanest bearish combo for flat price and cracks. (Schedule details referenced above.)
- Demand trajectory: The IEA’s demand line will be stress-tested against China’s latest price data and mobility indicators. Any upward tweak to 2026 global demand or a slower non-OPEC supply path tightens balances into Q2, boosting front spreads.
- Macro spillover: A soft CPI (Fri) typically supports commodities via a weaker USD and easier real rates, while a hot CPI tends to lean the other way. Time your risk: carry structures and short-dated options often price in Friday’s vol premium by mid-week.
- Positioning: The CFTC update Friday evening CET helps confirm whether the early-Feb shakeout cleaned up length. A fresh build in managed-money net longs into bearish stock data would raise downside fragility; washed-out length ahead of bullish data adds convexity to upside. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Levels & structures to watch (conceptual)
- Timespreads: Front-month/second-month spreads often overreact to inventory deltas; fade extremes if the product side disagrees with crude.
- Crack spreads: RBOB and distillate cracks are your quickest read-through on “draws with demand” versus “draws from throughput cuts.”
- Gamma windows: Tuesday night (API), Wednesday 16:30 CET (EIA), Thursday 10:00–12:00 CET (IEA commentary window), Friday 14:30 CET (CPI). Stagger hedges accordingly.
Event calendar (CET)
- Tue, Feb 10 (late U.S.) → Wed pre-market CET: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (private).
- Wed, Feb 11 – 16:30 CET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- Thu, Feb 12 – a.m. CET: IEA Oil Market Report (February edition).
- Fri, Feb 13 – 14:30 CET: U.S. CPI (January).
- Fri, Feb 13 – 21:30 CET: CFTC Commitments of Traders (positions as of Tuesday).
Scenario grid
- Bullish (highest probability if stocks tighten): EIA shows a crude draw with synchronized product draws and steady/higher refinery runs; IEA nudges 2026 demand higher and trims surplus; CPI arrives benign. Expect firmer front spreads, stronger gasoline cracks, and beta outperformance in high-cost producers.
- Range-bound (base case): Mixed U.S. stocks (e.g., crude draw vs. gasoline build), a largely unchanged IEA balance table, and in-line CPI keep the curve anchored; roll carries most of the P&L.
- Bearish (tail): Large U.S. crude build + gasoline build; IEA leans to stronger non-OPEC supply; CPI hot. Look for flatter front spreads, softer cracks, and USD-driven pressure on flat price.
Bottom line
This is a data-dense oil week: private/API cues, the EIA print, a new IEA balance reset, and a macro kicker from U.S. CPI. If inventories tighten and the IEA trims the surplus while CPI cooperates, front-end strength and better cracks can carry the complex. A bearish combo (builds, softer IEA demand, hot CPI) would re-open downside in flat price and compress timespreads.
FAQ
When exactly do the weekly U.S. oil numbers drop in CET?
API is late Tuesday U.S. time (typically evening CET). The EIA is Wednesday 16:30 CET barring holiday adjustments.
Is there any OPEC+ decision risk this week?
Low. The monitoring committee met Feb 1; guidance now is mostly about compliance color rather than a fresh policy pivot.
Why does Friday’s CPI matter for oil?
It steers the dollar and real yields, which in turn affect commodities’ financial demand and risk appetite.
When do positioning numbers update?
Friday 21:30 CET for CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders (covering positions as of Tuesday).
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any commodity, security, or derivative. Views reflect the author’s analysis as of publication and may change without notice. While information is believed reliable, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Trading commodities involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Consider your objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before acting.
