Coinbase Global, Inc. closed out 2025 with a quarter that underscored crypto’s cyclicality: solid execution on product and market share, yet a swing back to GAAP losses as activity cooled late in the year. For Q4 2025, Coinbase reported net revenue of $1.71 billion (down 5% quarter-over-quarter), transaction revenue of $983 million (-6% q/q), subscription & services revenue of $727 million (-3% q/q), and a GAAP net loss of $667 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $566 million. Management flagged $420 million of Q1’26 transaction revenue generated through February 10, 2026—with its usual warning not to extrapolate early-quarter run-rates.
The headline contrast with earlier quarters is stark. After three straight profitable quarters in 2025, Coinbase’s Q4 loss reflects higher operating expenses (up 9% q/q to ~$1.5 billion), a softer pricing and activity backdrop into year-end, and mix effects. Technology & development plus G&A rose to about $950 million (including ~$216 million SBC), while sales & marketing reached $315 million.
What changed in the quarter?
Macro and market context. Crypto volumes and asset prices cooled into December, compressing retail and institutional activity. That manifested directly in Coinbase’s top line: transaction revenue fell sequentially, while the higher-quality subscription & services line (staking, stablecoin interest, custodial fees, and Coinbase One) eased only modestly. External coverage framed it bluntly—the exchange “swung to a quarterly loss on trading slowdown.”
Expense intensity and mix. The company leaned into product investment and go-to-market to support its “Everything Exchange” strategy. The sequential opex uptick, particularly in T&D and G&A, was the critical bridge from positive GAAP earnings in Q3 to a loss in Q4, even as adjusted EBITDA stayed positive. On mix, subscription & services continues to be a stabilizer, but it couldn’t fully offset the late-quarter drop in trading.
Balance sheet and capital returns. Coinbase ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, reflecting a reclassification that now includes “payment stablecoins” as cash equivalents. The company repurchased $1.7 billion of Class A shares in Q4 and through February 10, 2026, and the board expanded the combined share and long-term debt repurchase authorization by $2.0 billion in January.
A strong year beneath a softer finish
Despite the Q4 wobble, management describes 2025 as “a strong year operationally and financially.” Full-year revenue rose 9% to $7.2 billion; Coinbase touts Total Trading Volume of $5.2 trillion (+156% y/y), a doubling of crypto trading volume market share, and a claim that “more than 12% of all crypto” resided on the platform during 2025. Subscription & services revenue hit an annual record, helped by higher average USDC balances held across eligible products and a larger USDC market capitalization base.
That mix story matters. In 2021–2022, Coinbase was disproportionately reliant on spot trading fees. By contrast, 2025’s model looks more diversified: staking, custodial fees, interest on USDC reserves, and paid Coinbase One subscriptions created a recurring-ish layer that dampens but does not eliminate volatility. When trading slows, the engine still turns—just not fast enough to keep GAAP margins positive if opex lifts sharply in the same window.
Guidance and the first look at Q1 2026
The company’s near-term guide is intentionally conservative:
- Q1’26 subscription & services revenue: $550–$630 million, reflecting lower effective interest rates and lower average crypto prices vs. Q4.
- Transaction expenses: low-to-mid teens as a percentage of net revenue, dependent on mix.
- T&D + G&A: $925–$975 million, roughly flat vs. Q4.
- Sales & marketing: $215–$315 million, flat to down.
- Total SBC: ~$250 million.
Early-quarter datapoints show ~$420 million in transaction revenue through Feb 10—helpful visibility, but not predictive of the entire quarter given crypto’s bursty activity cycles.
Strategy check-in: “Everything Exchange” and share gains
Coinbase says it “delivered on Q4 financial outlook” and emphasizes execution against a multi-product strategy: spot and derivatives trading under one roof, deeper stablecoin and payments integration, and bringing more activity onchain via Base and DeFi integrations. A same-day press release also spotlights record trading volume and market-share gains.
The share-gain narrative is plausible in a consolidating market: regulatory clarity in core jurisdictions, institutional onboarding via Prime, and a more comprehensive retail subscription bundle help differentiate on trust and breadth. Still, translating share into durable margins requires discipline on costs and continued growth in non-transaction streams.
Stock reaction: resetting expectations
As the numbers hit, COIN traded lower; the live chart above shows the stock down materially during the session (Europe/Berlin evening of February 12, 2026). That reaction tracks the move from a profitable 2025 run-rate to a Q4 loss, plus tempered Q1 commentary on subscription revenues as rates and prices eased. Near-term, multiple compression is a risk if investors shift focus from FY25’s resilience to FY26 margin uncertainty. (For context, the live widget reflects intraday action; the close may differ.)
The takeaway for investors
- Cyclicality remains undefeated. Q4 proved that even a more diversified Coinbase can’t entirely outrun crypto’s demand swings. The model is sturdier—but not yet immune—to volume shocks.
- Quality of revenue is improving. Subscription & services staying near three-quarters of a billion dollars in a softer quarter is meaningful. It builds a floor under EBITDA and cash generation potential when trading slows.
- Costs are the swing factor. Holding opex flat (as guided) while nurturing the product roadmap will be key to re-expanding GAAP profitability in 2026.
- Balance sheet strength buys time. With ~$11.3B in cash equivalents and ongoing buybacks, Coinbase can lean through volatility and still manage dilution.
- Regulatory and market structure watch. Policy clarity on stablecoins, staking, and derivatives access—and continued institutional adoption—will dictate whether share gains translate into pricing power.
Bottom line
Q4 2025 is a reset, not a reversal. Coinbase exits the year with higher share, record S&S revenue, and ample liquidity—but also with a reminder that margins can compress quickly when activity fades and expenses step up. If management delivers opex discipline and sustains S&S growth while volumes recover—even modestly—the earnings power evident for most of 2025 can re-emerge in 2026.
FAQ
What were the key Q4 2025 numbers?
Net revenue $1.71B, transaction revenue $983M, subscription & services $727M, GAAP net loss $667M, Adjusted EBITDA $566M.
Why did Coinbase post a GAAP loss after profitable quarters?
A combination of lower trading activity late in the quarter and higher operating expenses—especially T&D and G&A—pushed GAAP results negative despite positive adjusted EBITDA.
How did the full year look?
Revenue grew 9% to $7.2B, with $5.2T in total trading volume, a doubling of crypto trading market share, and >12% of global crypto held on Coinbase platforms at some point during 2025.
What’s the early read on Q1 2026?
Through Feb 10, Coinbase generated ~$420M of transaction revenue; S&S is guided to $550–$630M, with flat core opex vs. Q4. Management cautions against extrapolation.
Did Coinbase buy back stock?
Yes. $1.7B of Class A shares repurchased in Q4 and through Feb 10, 2026. The board expanded repurchase authorization by $2.0B in January.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or digital assets. Investing in equities and cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While care has been taken to ensure accuracy at the time of writing (February 12, 2026, Europe/Berlin), figures and markets may change. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
