Ahead of its Q4 2025 results on February 12, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. faces mixed expectations: softer trading, resilient subscriptions, and elevated volatility into the print. Here’s the consensus, key drivers, and scenarios for COIN stock.
Key Takeaways
- Earnings date: Thursday, February 12, 2026 (after market close), with a webcast at 2:30 p.m. PT.
- Street setup: Consensus points to EPS around $1.15 and revenue near $1.85B, implying a sharp y/y decline versus the exceptional Q4 2024; some independent models run slightly lower on total revenue (~$1.77B).
- Volatility watch: Options pricing implies roughly a ±9.4% move on results—well above recent post-earnings reactions.
- Macro context: Crypto sold off into the print (early February), potentially affecting sentiment and Q1 commentary even though Q4 closed on Dec 31.
When Is Coinbase Reporting?
Coinbase Global, Inc. will release Q4 and full-year 2025 results after the bell on Feb 12, 2026. The company’s IR page confirms the timing and webcast details. Expect management to address trading trends, subscription revenue durability, and 2026 priorities during the call.
What the Market Expects
Most aggregated previews peg revenue around $1.85B and non-GAAP/adjusted EPS roughly $1.15, though published estimates vary by source and methodology. A recent breakdown from a market-structure research firm models $1.77B total revenue (transaction ~$978M; subscriptions & services ~$726M). The dispersion matters: it raises the risk of headline whipsaws if Coinbase prints between these goalposts.
Why Q4 Could Look Different From Q3
- Volumes vs. take rate: If spot and derivatives activity cooled late in the quarter, transaction revenue may step down from Q3, partially offset by take-rate dynamics. (Talos’ model implies this mix effect.)
- Subscriptions & services resilience: Custody, interest income (e.g., stablecoin and customer balances), and staking services have been the stabilizers through past cycles; a modest sequential dip from Q3 is still consistent with outperformance vs. pure trading.
- Post-quarter tape: Early February 2026 saw sharp risk-off in crypto—**Bitcoin slid to the mid-$60Ks—shaping near-term outlook language even if it doesn’t hit Q4 prints.
Stock-Move Setup: Big Swing Priced In
Into earnings, the options market prices a ~9.4% one-day move (either direction), notably larger than the average absolute reaction over the last four quarters (~4.4%). That gap suggests traders see elevated surprise risk on volumes, subscription durability, or 2026 color.
What to Watch on the Call
- Retail vs. institutional mix: Signs of broadening institutional flows could stabilize take rates and smooth cyclicality.
- Subscriptions & services: Trajectory of custody, staking, and interest income; any commentary on sustainability amid rate-path uncertainty.
- Expense discipline: Opex run-rate exiting Q4 and flexibility for 2026.
- Regulatory developments: Read-through for 2026 (licensing footprints, enforcement landscape).
- Q1 tone: Given the February crypto drawdown, any intra-quarter update will be heavily scrutinized.
Scenario Analysis for COIN
- Bull case: Volumes prove sturdier than feared; subscriptions & services hold near Q3 levels; commentary points to improving institutional pipelines. Print lands closer to $1.85B with EPS ≥ consensus.
- Base case: Modest sequential step-down vs. Q3; subs & services cushion the drop; outlook acknowledges early-Q1 volatility but frames it as transitory. Revenue $1.77–$1.85B, EPS around $1.00–$1.20.
- Bear case: Deeper volume softness and/or lower take rate; subs & services fade more than expected; cautious Q1 tone after the crypto selloff. Print below $1.75B and EPS misses by a wide margin.
Competitive and Sentiment Backdrop
Peers tied to retail trading have flagged mixed trends into Q4/Q1, while crypto-exposed indices fell in January 2026 (e.g., Coinbase-branded COIN50 index down ~10.8% m/m), underscoring how quickly sentiment turned into the result. Analyst price-target tweaks this week reflect those cross-currents.
Bottom Line
Heading into February 12, the tape is braced for a sizable swing. The print vs. a wide consensus band and tone on Q1 will likely drive COIN more than any single line item. If subscriptions & services again provide resilience and management leans constructive on institutional demand, the stock reaction could skew positive despite crypto’s shaky start to 2026. Otherwise, the market’s already-elevated implied move leaves room for downside if volumes or outlook disappoint.
FAQ
When will Coinbase report earnings?
After market close on Thursday, February 12, 2026, with a webcast at 2:30 p.m. PT.
What are the consensus estimates?
Snapshots point to ~$1.85B revenue and ~$1.15 EPS, while some independent models are lower (about $1.77B).
How much could the stock move?
Options imply roughly ±9.4% on the day after results.
What macro factors matter most?
Crypto prices and volumes—note the early-February selloff that could color Q1 commentary.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or digital assets. Forecasts and scenario analyses are inherently uncertain and based on publicly available information and third-party estimates as of February 11, 2026. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
