Markets step into the Feb 9–13 stretch with two force-multipliers: a heavy data slate—headlined by U.S. January CPI—and fresh political currents from Japan to Brussels. Liquidity is decent, earnings season is still live, and cross-asset volatility remains elevated after recent swings in metals, crypto and FX. The core question: do inflation prints and policy headlines validate the “soft-landing-and-cut-later” narrative—or crack it?
The 3 big things to watch
- U.S. CPI on Friday (Jan reading): Consensus expects a modest monthly rise, but the release comes against the backdrop of a partial U.S. government shutdown that has already delayed other Labor Department publications. That raises two watch-points: (a) whether the BLS publishes on time; and (b) how sticky core components look going into spring.
- UK growth check on Thursday: The Office for National Statistics is set to drop December monthly GDP alongside trade and production—an early read on Q4 momentum and the services rebound. It’s one of the week’s cleaner European growth signals.
- Europe’s political calendar (Wed–Fri): EU ministers and leaders huddle in Brussels and The Hague region—a Defence-focused Foreign Affairs Council on Wednesday, an informal EU leaders’ retreat on Thursday, and Employment/Social Affairs ministers Thursday–Friday—shaping the near-term policy tone on security, industry policy and labour markets.
Political risk radar
- Japan’s snap election aftermath (Mon): Weekend voting delivered a sweeping mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the LDP, strengthening fiscal-stimulus expectations and keeping the yen path sensitive to deficit and JGB term-premium chatter. Equity beta should stay positive near-term; JGBs and FX are more two-sided.
- Energy policy pulse: No formal OPEC+ ministerial is scheduled this week after the Feb 1 JMMC check-in, but guidance about March compliance and any whispers on quota discipline will still color crude.
Earnings that can move tape
We’re past the mega-cap fireworks, but this week still carries macro-sensitive bellwethers:
- Tuesday: The Coca-Cola Company (pricing power; emerging-market FX translation), plus Spotify (ad trends, premium ARPU) and Ford Motor (EV margin trajectory vs. ICE cash cows).
- Wednesday: Shopify (SMB online demand), McDonald’s (traffic vs. check size), and Cisco Systems (AI/data-center capex pass-through).
- Thursday: Airbnb (cross-border travel elasticity), Applied Materials (wafer-fab orders), and Coinbase (crypto take-rate vs. volumes).
- Friday: Wendy’s and Enbridge—useful for U.S. consumer value trade and North American pipeline cash-flow, respectively.
Day-by-day planner (Europe/Berlin time)
Monday, Feb 9
- Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence; watch for whether January’s factory-sector stabilization sticks into February.
- Japan: post-election price action—yen and JGBs react to a larger-than-expected LDP mandate.
- U.S.: Wholesale inventories (Dec) give a final nudge to Q4 GDP nowcasts.
Tuesday, Feb 10
- U.S. earnings heavy (KO, SPOT, F): focus on pricing power vs. volumes and any commentary on 2026 demand elasticity.
Wednesday, Feb 11
- EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defence)—procurement, Ukraine support, and defence-industrial policy are in scope; headlines can move European defence equities and EUR rates via fiscal-spend implications.
- U.K.: Index of Production (Dec). Micro read-through to energy-intensive sectors.
- U.S.: More earnings (SHOP, MCD, CSCO).
Thursday, Feb 12
- UK monthly GDP (Dec) + trade + production at 07:00—first hard look at end-Q4 growth; cable and gilts sensitive.
- Informal EU leaders’ retreat; EPSCO informal (Thu–Fri). Watch communiqués on competitiveness and labour mobility.
- U.S.: Travel/semis/crypto cluster (ABNB, AMAT, COIN).
Friday, Feb 13
- U.S. CPI (Jan) at 14:30—headline/core breadth will steer the “June vs. later” Fed-cut debate. Note: recent shutdown already pushed other BLS releases; a last-minute delay is a tail risk.
- EU: Employment/Social Affairs ministers continue; wage and mobility lines matter for 2026 unit-labour-cost paths.
Cross-asset implications
- Rates: A clean U.S. CPI print that leans soft should flatten curves (bull-flatten) and revive cut-timing for summer; firm shelter or services-ex-housing pushes the opposite. Gilts take their cue from UK GDP and any hawkish re-pricing at short end.
- FX: USD’s event risk is CPI; JPY trades fiscal-expansion vs. BoJ normalization probabilities post-election; EUR is mostly a passenger unless EU meetings hint at larger joint funding or defence outlays.
- Equities: Defensives with pricing power (beverages, staples) and semis equipment remain focal via earnings; European defence names are headline-sensitive mid-week.
- Commodities/Crypto: No scheduled OPEC+ catalyst, so oil follows macro beta and inventory data; crypto volatility clusters around Coinbase commentary.
Bottom line
This is a U.S. CPI + UK GDP week, framed by EU policy optics and Japan’s election after-shocks. If inflation cooperates and UK data show stabilization, risk assets can extend the rebound; otherwise, expect a rates-led wobble with FX and cyclicals bearing the brunt.
FAQ
Will the U.S. CPI definitely be released on Feb 13?
The official schedule says yes (08:30 ET), but the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has already delayed other BLS outputs—so a late change is a non-zero risk.
What EU meetings should traders actually diarize?
Feb 11: Foreign Affairs Council (Defence). Feb 12: Informal EU leaders’ retreat. Feb 12–13: Informal Employment/Social Affairs ministers.
Which single earnings print has the broadest macro read-through?
Coca-Cola on Tuesday for real-time global demand/pricing and FX; Applied Materials Thursday for capex appetite in semis; Airbnb for cross-border services demand.
How does Japan’s election matter for markets now?
A stronger LDP mandate boosts odds of pro-growth fiscal steps; near-term that tends to support Japanese equities and keep JPY sensitive to widening rate differentials.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy/sell any security or instrument. Views reflect the author’s analysis at publication and may change without notice. While sources are believed reliable, no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness; always perform your own due diligence and consider your specific financial situation.
