Robinhood Markets, Inc. closed 2025 with record quarterly revenue of $1.28B and Q4 diluted EPS of $0.66, capping a record full-year $4.5B revenue and $2.05 EPS. Shares fell ~6–7% after hours as revenue missed Street expectations despite the earnings beat.
What stood out in the quarter
- Top line vs. mix. Q4 revenue rose 27% y/y to $1.28B. Within that, transaction-based revenue +15% to $776M as options (+41% y/y to $314M) and equities (+54% to $94M) offset cryptocurrencies −38% to $221M. Management also called out a >300% surge in “other transaction revenue” to $147M, linked to newer products like event (prediction) contracts.
- Users & assets. Total platform assets ended the year around $324B with $16B net deposits in Q4; Robinhood Gold subscribers climbed 58% y/y to 4.2M. (Several outlets also flagged ~13M monthly active users, down y/y.)
- Market reaction. The stock dropped after hours on the revenue miss vs. ~$1.33–$1.35B consensus and crypto softness, even as the EPS beat landed.
Drivers and moving parts
- Crypto downshift: Despite a rebound in some digital assets late in 2025, crypto transaction revenue underwhelmed, landing at $221M. Management also noted lower app crypto notional volumes (partly offset by Bitstamp) and pricing dynamics that trimmed rebates. Sensitivity to crypto cycles remains a swing factor.
- Engagement elsewhere: Equity and options activity was robust, with record options contracts (659M) and equity notional volumes ($710B). That breadth helped cushion the crypto drag and underpins take-rate resilience.
- Balance sheet & monetization levers: Margin balances surged to $16.8B (+113% y/y), cash sweep balances to $32.8B, and retirement AUC to $26.5B—all helpful for NIM and subscription cross-sell via Gold.
- International & product expansion: Management highlighted Bitstamp scaling institutional volumes, a planned Indonesia expansion via brokerage and crypto acquisitions, and a UK stocks & shares ISA launch. Early Banking rollout to Gold subscribers is underway.
2026 outlook: spending up first, revenue diversification later
Management did not guide revenue, but laid out a 2026 expense plan focused on shipping products, marketing, and global expansion—targeting Adjusted Operating Expenses + SBC of $2.6B to $2.725B (about +18% y/y at midpoint). Items like credit losses, certain acquisition costs, and potential regulatory matters are explicitly excluded from that range. Translation: expect a year of investment-led opex growth with some non-GAAP add-backs, and GAAP opex may vary with one-offs.
Management also furnished preliminary January 2026 datapoints suggesting momentum outside of crypto: $4.5B net deposits, margin book up to $18.4B, equities and options volumes rising y/y, and mixed crypto notional (app down, Bitstamp up). Those early trends hint that rate-sensitive and trading-adjacent revenues could keep carrying the load while core app crypto remains choppy.
My take on Robinhood
- The beat/miss optics make sense. The quarter shows broadening monetization (subscriptions, interest, event contracts) but Street models were leaning on crypto for the high bar. With crypto light, the revenue miss overshadowed healthy mix and the EPS beat—hence the selloff.
- Quality of growth improved. Record options/equities volumes, swelling margin balances, and Gold growth imply more durable cash-flow drivers than purely crypto-beta.
- 2026 is an “invest to grow” year. The opex guide signals stepped-up product velocity (Banking, ISA, retirement, prediction markets, advisory/custody via TradePMR, and Bitstamp integration). Near-term margin pressure is possible, but deposit growth and higher balances could cushion it.
- Key risks: macro rate path (NIM), crypto volumes staying soft, regulatory overhang (especially around prediction markets and international crypto), and execution on Banking & international rollouts.
Scenario guide for 2026
- Bull case (30%): Rates stay supportive, equities/option activity remains elevated, Banking scales, and Bitstamp synergies lift crypto share. Revenues accelerate while opex growth buys operating leverage by 2H26.
- Base case (50%): Mixed crypto, healthy options/equities, steady deposits. Revenue growth mid-teens; margins roughly stable as opex growth is absorbed.
- Bear case (20%): Crypto volumes sag, engagement normalizes, and regulatory costs bite. Revenue slows to high single digits and 2026 margins compress.
What to watch next
- Trajectory of net deposits and margin book through Q1.
- Uptake of Banking and the UK ISA (cross-sell into investing & subscriptions).
- Progress on integrating Bitstamp and any pricing changes in crypto trading.
- Any regulatory updates on event (prediction) contracts and international operations.
FAQ on Robinhood
Did Robinhood beat or miss expectations?
EPS beat ($0.66 vs. ~$0.63 est.), revenue missed (~$1.28B vs. ~$1.33–$1.35B est.).
Why did the Robinhood stock drop after hours?
Because the revenue miss and weak crypto outweighed the EPS beat and records elsewhere.
What’s the 2026 guidance for Robinhood?
No revenue guide; Adjusted OpEx + SBC targeted at $2.6B–$2.725B (+~18% y/y midpoint), excluding certain items.
Are user trends getting better or worse?
Gold subs and balances are rising; MAUs are down y/y; assets and deposits are up. Preliminary January 2026 datapoints looked solid outside of crypto.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. The analysis reflects the author’s interpretation of publicly available information as of February 10, 2026 (Europe/Berlin) and may change without notice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor.
