D-Wave Quantum’s latest quarterly report landed with a familiar mix for early-stage deep-tech: still sizeable losses, but improving core commercial signals and a balance sheet that gives the company time to execute. For investors tracking QBTS, the key questions after Q4 and full-year 2025 were straightforward: What actually changed in the business, and what does the company’s “guidance” imply for 2026?
Q4 2025 headline numbers: revenue up, bookings surged, losses still heavy
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, D-Wave reported revenue of $2.8 million, up 19% year over year. Gross profit in the quarter rose alongside revenue, and gross margin remained in the mid-60% range on a GAAP basis.
But the bigger swing factor in this release wasn’t Q4 revenue—it was demand signals:
- Q4 bookings were $13.4 million, down year over year (due to an unusually large booking in Q4 2024), but up 471% sequentially versus Q3 bookings of $2.4 million.
- Management framed bookings as a forward indicator of expected future net revenue, which is especially relevant for a business that mixes QCaaS subscriptions with system sales and enterprise agreements.
On profitability: D-Wave’s GAAP net loss for FY2025 was $355.1 million, and the company emphasized that a significant driver was non-cash, non-operating warrant liability remeasurement and warrant exercises—an accounting effect tied to the equity and warrant structure rather than day-to-day operating performance.
Full-year FY2025: the scale-up story is real, even if it’s early
For fiscal year 2025, D-Wave reported revenue of $24.6 million, up 179% from $8.8 million in 2024. GAAP gross profit rose to $20.3 million, and GAAP gross margin expanded to 82.6%, helped by a higher-margin system sale during the year.
That kind of gross margin headline can be misleading if read like a mature SaaS metric. In D-Wave’s case, the margin profile is sensitive to revenue mix (QCaaS vs. systems), timing, and one-off items. Still, the direction matters: it suggests the company can produce attractive unit economics when revenue lands in the right places.
Balance sheet: liquidity is no longer the near-term constraint
One of the most investor-friendly datapoints was D-Wave’s year-end liquidity position. The company reported $884.5 million in cash and marketable investment securities as of December 31, 2025, a major increase versus the prior year.
For a quantum computing company still investing heavily in R&D, go-to-market, and platform expansion, that cushion changes the conversation. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it reduces the risk of being forced into “bad” financing at the wrong time—especially if public-market sentiment turns against pre-profit tech again.
Guidance for 2026: no classic revenue outlook, but a clear “bookings-first” message
Investors hoping for traditional numeric guidance (for example, a 2026 revenue range) didn’t get it in the way they might from a mature software company. Instead, D-Wave’s outlook was delivered as qualitative guidance, anchored by bookings momentum and several large customer/commercial developments.
CEO Dr. Alan Baratz said the company was entering 2026 with “exceptional momentum,” including “over $30 million in bookings in January alone” and described 2026 as “a defining year.”
The company also disclosed that as of February 25, 2026, Q1 2026 year-to-date bookings exceeded $32.8 million, boosted by deals announced after year-end.
What’s inside that bookings jump?
D-Wave tied the early-2026 bookings acceleration to a few high-profile items:
- A $20 million Advantage2 system purchase by Florida Atlantic University, with deployment expected by the end of 2026.
- A $10 million, two-year enterprise QCaaS license agreement with a Fortune 100 company.
- A €10 million booking for 50% capacity of an Advantage2 annealing quantum computer to support a quantum research facility in Lombardy, Italy.
Put simply, management’s “guidance” is telling the market: watch bookings conversion, enterprise QCaaS traction, and system deployments, because those should shape the revenue curve over subsequent quarters.
Strategy update: dual-platform positioning gets sharper
D-Wave continues to differentiate itself as a dual-platform company—commercial annealing systems today, plus a longer-term bet on gate-model machines. A major step here was the completion of its Quantum Circuits, Inc. acquisition, which D-Wave says strengthens its gate-model roadmap through error-detecting dual-rail qubits and high reported gate fidelities.
Management also highlighted progress on on-chip cryogenic control intended to reduce wiring complexity at scale—another reminder that engineering constraints, not just “qubit counts,” are central to quantum commercialization.
What to watch next (the investor checklist)
If you’re building a QBTS thesis around the earnings print and the 2026 outlook, these are the practical signposts:
- Bookings conversion into revenue (especially QCaaS renewals and expansions).
- Timing and margin profile of the FAU Advantage2 deployment and other system-related milestones.
- Enterprise adoption signals, including additional multi-year QCaaS agreements.
- Operating expense discipline as the company scales go-to-market and R&D.
- Clarity on gate-model roadmap milestones post-Quantum Circuits acquisition.
Conclusion
D-Wave’s Q4 2025 report didn’t deliver a neat, numeric 2026 revenue forecast—but it did deliver something arguably more important for this stage: evidence of demand acceleration via bookings, paired with a very large liquidity runway to pursue its dual-platform roadmap. The “guidance” is effectively a bookings- and execution-driven narrative: if the company can convert early-2026 bookings into recurring QCaaS revenue and successful deployments, the financial model can start to look less speculative and more scalable.
FAQ
Did D-Wave provide 2026 revenue guidance?
Not in the form of a traditional revenue range in the earnings release. The company emphasized bookings momentum and business outlook commentary instead.
What were D-Wave’s Q4 2025 bookings and why do they matter?
Q4 bookings were $13.4 million, up sharply from Q3, and management uses bookings as a demand indicator for future net revenues.
How strong was the start to 2026?
D-Wave said Q1 2026 year-to-date bookings exceeded $32.8 million as of Feb. 25, 2026, supported by several large agreements.
What is Advantage2?
Advantage2 is D-Wave’s next-generation annealing quantum computing system referenced in multiple contracts and capacity bookings.
Why was GAAP net loss so large in FY2025?
D-Wave attributed a significant portion of the increase to non-cash, non-operating charges linked to warrant liability remeasurement and warrant exercises.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Quantum computing companies are high-risk investments subject to significant volatility, technological uncertainty, competitive pressure, and financing risk. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
