Date/time: Robinhood reports Q4 & Full-Year 2025 results tomorrow, Tuesday, February 10, 2026, after U.S. market close (5:00 p.m. ET), followed by a conference call.
Robinhood’s Market setup at a glance
- Consensus: Analysts look for EPS ≈ $0.62 and revenue ≈ $1.32B—stout double-digit growth vs. last year, setting a demanding bar.
- Stock context (today): Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares recently traded around $87–$88, after a choppy week tied to crypto softness and fading football-season “prediction markets” flow.
What the Street will laser-focus on
1) Transaction activity mix: crypto vs. options vs. equities
Q3 showed a powerful mix: options and crypto were the twin engines of transaction revenue, and bulls want to see that breadth sustained into Q4. Any softness from lower crypto prices must be offset by resilient options and equity volumes. Recent preview pieces peg revenue growth ~30% y/y; the risk is crypto beta into the print.
2) KPIs that frame durability
Expect management to update the core dashboard. Into Q4, the latest disclosed run-rates included:
- MAU: 13.8M in Q3 (+2.8M y/y).
- ARPU: $191 in Q3 (+82% y/y).
- Gold subscribers: 3.9M (+77% y/y).
- Net Deposits (Q3): $20.4B, 29% annualized growth vs. prior quarter’s asset base.
These metrics will be checked against December quarter dynamics and monthly operating data.
3) December seasonality & “events” flow
Robinhood flagged ~2.6B event contracts traded in December 2025 (its prediction-/event-style products). With U.S. football ending and crypto retreating, investors want clarity on how much revenue these contributed and what replaces that intensity in Q1.
4) Balance sheet firepower & capital returns
Q3 highlighted $4.3B cash and ongoing buybacks. Any update on capital allocation—repurchases vs. growth investments—will color the 2026 story.
Consensus snapshot (what “beats” likely require)
- Revenue: Street near $1.32B. “Beat” chatter will likely start ≥$1.35B; a $1.30B–$1.34B band is the “inline” zone.
- Adj. EPS: Street near $0.62; ≥$0.65 would read cleanly bullish unless driven solely by below-the-line items.
- Transaction-based revenue: Q3 printed ~$730M; repeating or topping that with healthier mix (not only crypto) would ease durability fears.
- AUC / Net deposits: Y/Y growth and strong net-deposit rates remain the simplest “trust the platform” tell.
Bull vs. bear tape-check (heading into the call)
Bull case (what could go right):
- Broad-based strength across options + equities + crypto, not just a BTC pop.
- ARPU holds near Q3’s elevated level; Gold subscriptions keep compounding.
- 2026 narrative widens (Banking/credit card, international, prediction markets) without crushing opex guide.
Bear case (what could go wrong):
- Crypto slump bleeds into December/January; event-contract intensity fades post-football, pressuring take-rate.
- KPIs (MAU, deposits) stall vs. Q3 pace; ARPU normalizes faster than bulls expect.
- Expense or regulatory color spooks the multiple.
What I’ll listen for on the call (decision-useful questions)
- Mix & elasticity: How did options contracts and equity notional trend vs. October/November updates? Any January color?
- Crypto sensitivity: Revenue sensitivity to BTC/ETH moves in Q4 vs. Q3—has the engine diversified?
- Gold & ARPU: Pricing headroom and attach on new products (banking, credit card, futures, EU/UK). Are ARPU gains durable?
- Operating leverage: Run-rate opex and hiring plans for 2026—what does “growth with discipline” look like coming off a breakout year?
Trading lens for tomorrow night
- Base case: Inline revenue (~$1.32B) and EPS (~$0.62), with balanced activity mix → likely range trade unless forward commentary is notably strong/weak.
- Upside swing: Revenue ≥$1.35B, positive Q1 color on activity and deposits, and steady ARPU → relief rally despite recent volatility.
- Downside risk: Mix skews heavily to crypto, event-contract decel is sharp, or MAU/Net Deposits underwhelm → multiple compresses near-term.
Bottom line for Robinhood
The Street set a high but achievable bar: if mix resilience (options/equities plus crypto), sticky ARPU, and healthy deposits show up, bulls keep control into 2026. If the quarter leans too hard on crypto or event contracts—and KPIs soften—the multiple can wobble even on “meets.” Tomorrow’s guide and color will decide which narrative carries the day.
FAQ
When exactly is Robinhood’s report and call?
Tomorrow, Feb 10, 2026, after market close (5:00 p.m. ET).
What are consensus expectations?
Street sits around $0.62 EPS / $1.32B revenue for Q4.
Which KPIs matter most for Robinhood?
ARPU, MAU, Gold subs, Net Deposits, AUC, and mix across options/equities/crypto. Q3 baselines: ARPU $191, MAU 13.8M, Gold 3.9M.
Why mention prediction/event contracts?
Robinhood highlighted ~2.6B December contracts; investors want to know revenue durability as football ends and seasonality shifts.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy/sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
