Nvidia reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the U.S. close tonight (Wednesday, November 19, 2025). With AI infrastructure still the market’s north star, the print and—more importantly—the guidance will set the tone for semis, cloud, and the broader “AI trade” into year-end. Below is your fast, SEO-friendly guide to what the Street expects, what truly matters, and how NVDA stock could react.
Headline consensus heading into the print
- Revenue: ~$54.8–$55.2 billion (vs. company guide around $54B).
- EPS (non-GAAP): ~$1.25–$1.26.
- Timing: results after the bell; call later in the European evening.
Why this quarter is pivotal
1) Data Center momentum (and mix)
The Data Center segment remains the flywheel. Investors want proof that demand is broadening beyond a few hyperscalers into enterprise, sovereign AI, and vertical-specific workloads. A clean acceleration with a rich HGX/GB200 mix would reinforce the “durable AI capex” narrative; a concentration in a handful of mega-buyers would reignite digestion fears.
2) Gross margin trajectory
Non-GAAP gross margin around the 73–74% area is the line in the sand. Upside signals strong pricing power and favorable configuration mix; downside hints at competitive pressure, discounting, or transitional costs tied to the Blackwell platform ramp.
3) Guidance for fiscal Q4 (January quarter)
Street models cluster near $61–62B. A confident guide—citing Blackwell shipments, backlog visibility, and diversified demand—could overshadow near-term supply friction. A cautious tone (sub-$60B) would likely hit AI-exposed peers alongside NVDA.
4) Competitive landscape watchpoints
AMD’s latest accelerators have tightened certain inference benchmarks, but Nvidia’s platform lock-in (CUDA ecosystem, networking, software stacks) remains the moat to beat. Any color on win rates, pricing discipline, or competitive concessioning will be price-moving.
5) China/export dynamics and product cadence
Updates on export-compliant product mix and the Blackwell ramp cadence will matter for 1H26 revenue phasing. Clarity on shipments versus revenue recognition (acceptance timing) is a subtle but critical driver for the guide.
Options are braced for a big swing
Derivatives markets imply roughly a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit move on the event—one of the largest potential market-cap swings anywhere. In plain English: positioning is tense, and post-print “vol crush” dynamics could dominate near-term trading.
KPI cheat-sheet for the release
- Revenue: ≥ $55B = clean beat; $54–55B = inline; < $53B = disappointment.
- EPS (non-GAAP): ≥ $1.26 bullish; $1.23–$1.26 neutral.
- Data Center revenue: >$48B validates broad demand; < $47B fuels digestion fears.
- Gross margin (non-GAAP): ≥ 73.5% indicates strong mix/pricing; ≤ 72.5% raises discounting/transition questions.
- Guide (fQ4 revenue): ≥ $62B bullish; $60–61B fine; < $60B stings.
Scenario map: how NVDA stock could react
- Bull case: Beat on revenue/EPS, DC > $49B, GM ≥ 74%, and fQ4 guide ≥ $62B with confident Blackwell commentary. Likely reaction: shares gap up within the top of the implied range.
- Base case: Inline revenue/EPS, GM ~73%, guide ~$61B, balanced tone on AI capex. Likely reaction: muted; options sellers win.
- Bear case: Soft DC or margin, sub-$60B guide, signs of order concentration or slippage. Likely reaction: gap down toward the lower bound of the implied move.
What to listen for on the call (Berlin evening)
- Blackwell ramp: lead times, supply-chain constraints, and revenue recognition timing.
- Enterprise AI: traction outside the Big 5 hyperscalers.
- Networking: NVLink/switching constraints and pricing.
- Software monetization: adoption of NIM and CUDA-adjacent stacks; TCO messaging for CFOs.
- Competitive pricing: whether Nvidia is conceding to maintain share or holding the line.
Market setup into the print
NVDA has cooled from recent highs, and positioning is sensitive. A “meet-and-lower” outcome risks a broader AI pullback; a “beat-and-raise with visibility” likely re-accelerates AI leaders and high-beta semis into the Thanksgiving week.
Conclusion
Expectations are elevated but not euphoric. To extend leadership, Nvidia needs a clean beat, resilient margins, and a confident, visibility-rich guide into the Blackwell cycle with evidence that demand is diversifying beyond a handful of mega-customers. Anything less could keep the “AI capex digestion” narrative alive and cap near-term upside for NVDA—and the AI complex more broadly.
FAQ
When are results due in Europe?
After the U.S. close tonight (Wednesday, November 19, 2025); the call follows later in the evening.
What numbers does Nvidia need to beat?
Think ~$55B revenue and ~$1.25 EPS as the initial hurdle for a positive first reaction.
How big a move is priced?
Options point to roughly a ~±7% move around the event.
Top upside surprise?
A $62B+ fQ4 revenue guide with explicit Blackwell shipment visibility and broadening enterprise demand.
Top downside risk?
Sub-$60B guide, margin compression, or signs that spend is concentrated and slipping into 1H26.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Estimates and scenarios discussed here are based on publicly available data and are subject to change without notice. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
