A dense macro-micro mix awaits investors this week: heavyweight U.S. earnings collide with labor data, a fresh U.S. Treasury funding blueprint, and three major central-bank decisions. Here’s the concise roadmap—times in America/Chicago.
Macro calendar: three prints and a funding twist
- Mon, Feb 2 — Manufacturing pulse: January ISM Manufacturing at 9:00 a.m. (CT). Price and employment sub-indices will shape inflation and growth narratives. (Institute: Institute for Supply Management)
- Tue, Feb 3 — Labor demand: December JOLTS at 9:00 a.m. (CT) to gauge openings, quits, and hiring frictions. (Agency: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Wed, Feb 4 — Jobs proxy + services: ADP private payrolls at 7:15 a.m. (CT), then ISM Services at 9:00 a.m. (CT). Watch services prices and employment for signs of inflation stickiness. (Company: ADP)
- Wed, midday — Treasury refunding: The quarterly refunding announcement sets auction sizes, maturities, and buyback details—key for rates term-premium and equity duration. (Department: United States Department of the Treasury)
- Fri, Feb 6 — Nonfarm Payrolls: The January Employment Situation at 7:30 a.m. (CT). Beyond the headline, focus on private vs. government jobs, average hourly earnings, and weekly hours.
Central banks: divergence watch
- Tue (US Mon night) — RBA: The Reserve Bank of Australia meets with a live debate around re-tightening versus a prolonged hold. FX: AUD and front-end rates most sensitive.
- Thu — BoE: The Bank of England delivers its first 2026 decision alongside the Monetary Policy Report; vote splits and wage/inflation paths will guide GBP and Gilts.
- Thu — ECB: The European Central Bank holds a press conference; language on QT, liquidity, and “higher for longer” risks will steer EUR rates.
Earnings: the marquee lineup (by day)
Mon, Feb 2
- Theme: media & parks. Eyes on streaming profitability, sports JV progress, and parks margins at The Walt Disney Company.
Tue, Feb 3
- Semis, pharma, fintech, snacks, gaming:
- Advanced Micro Devices — AI PC/server mix, gross-margin cadence.
- Pfizer — post-COVID base business, pipeline milestones and SG&A discipline.
- PayPal — take rate, branded vs. unbranded checkout, product velocity.
- PepsiCo — volume/price balance, GLP-1 demand effects on snacks.
- Electronic Arts — live-services traction, pipeline visibility.
Wed, Feb 4
- Search & cloud bellwether:
- Alphabet — Search ad pricing, YouTube RPMs, Cloud operating leverage vs. AI capex.
Thu, Feb 5
- Everything store + chips, energy, industrials, beauty:
- Amazon — AWS margins vs. data-center capex, retail ad share, fulfillment productivity.
- Qualcomm — handset cycle, RF content, edge-AI attach.
- ConocoPhillips — capex discipline, shareholder returns, shale productivity.
- Rockwell Automation — orders, backlog burn, factory-automation demand.
- Estée Lauder — China travel retail, margin rebuild, inventory health.
Fri, Feb 6
- Consumers & biotech into NFP:
- AutoNation — pricing spread for new/used, F&I profitability.
- Philip Morris International — smoke-free transition metrics, FX sensitivity.
- Biogen — neuro portfolio ramp, margins, R&D cadence.
- Under Armour — wholesale vs. DTC mix, inventory and margin path.
Energy & geopolitics: supply steady, risks elevated
The producer group OPEC+ has signaled steady supply near term, keeping attention on demand and geopolitical risk premia. Watch Saudi OSPs for March as an additional lever for Asian refiners and global spreads.
What matters most (in plain English)
- AI spend must justify itself: With Alphabet and Amazon reporting, investors will press for a clearer bridge from massive AI capex to revenue and margin lift (Search/Ads, Cloud attach, Retail Ads).
- Goods vs. services split: Manufacturing likely remains soft while services stay resilient—an awkward mix for the “disinflation without damage” narrative.
- Labor cooling, not cracking: JOLTS/ADP/NFP triangulation will either validate or challenge rate-cut timing embedded in front-end rates.
- Rates supply impulse: Treasury refunding details can jolt the long end and ripple through high-duration tech.
- Policy divergence: A potentially hawkish RBA against steady ECB/BoE would underline G10 divergence, with FX and front-end rates most sensitive.
Day-by-day cheat sheet (CT)
- Mon 2/2: ISM Manufacturing; Disney earnings.
- Tue 2/3: JOLTS; RBA decision; AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, PepsiCo, EA.
- Wed 2/4: ADP; ISM Services; U.S. Treasury refunding; Alphabet after close.
- Thu 2/5: BoE decision; ECB press conference; Amazon, Qualcomm, ConocoPhillips, Rockwell Automation, Estée Lauder.
- Fri 2/6: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls; AutoNation, Philip Morris International, Biogen, Under Armour.
Bottom line
Expect a tug-of-war week. Megacap tech and Treasury supply sit opposite a still-resilient services economy and a labor market that’s cooling in slow motion. Any downside surprise in jobs or a heavier-than-expected refunding mix could pull forward rate-cut bets—bullish for duration, mixed for cyclicals—while upbeat Big Tech prints would keep AI-led leadership intact.
FAQ
What’s the single biggest market mover this week?
Friday’s U.S. jobs report typically dominates, but Alphabet/Amazon plus Treasury refunding create a potent mid-week catalyst.
How do ISM seasonal updates affect markets?
Annual factor changes can shift diffusion indices around the 50 line without a true change in activity—important context for knee-jerk trades.
Is the RBA really an outlier now?
Yes, Australia’s setup allows for a more hawkish stance versus Europe’s likely holds, underscoring policy divergence within developed markets.
Anything outside the U.S./Europe to watch?
Oil supply signals from OPEC+ and ongoing geopolitical risk can sway energy, inflation expectations, and cyclicals.
Disclaimer
This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. All opinions reflect the author’s judgment as of publication and are subject to change without notice. Investors should perform their own research and consider their objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
