Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (LSE: RR.) will publish its 2025 full-year results on 26 February 2026, a report that effectively serves as the market’s key checkpoint for fourth-quarter performance and the durability of the company’s multi-year turnaround.
With the shares having traded near recent highs in February, expectations are elevated: investors want evidence that stronger profitability and cash generation aren’t a one-off—especially as aerospace supply chains, defense demand, and energy-related end-markets remain active but complex.
Consensus Forecasts: What Analysts Expect Rolls-Royce to Report
A useful starting point is Rolls-Royce’s own published analyst consensus. For FY 2025, the latest consensus points to:
- Group underlying revenue: £19,610m
- Group underlying EBIT: £3,274m
- Group underlying PBT: £3,161m
- Free cash flow (FCF): £3,189m
- EPS: 29.0p
- DPS: 9.4p
That FCF number matters as much as (or more than) the income statement. Rolls-Royce’s rerating has been driven by a market belief that the business can convert operating performance into sustainable cash, supporting balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns.
Looking ahead, the same consensus snapshot implies continued growth into FY 2026 (revenue £21,671m, EBIT £3,696m, FCF £3,659m, EPS 33.3p).
Guidance vs. Consensus: The “Beat or Meet” Setup
Rolls-Royce previously reaffirmed FY 2025 guidance of underlying operating profit of £3.1–£3.2bn and free cash flow of £3.0–£3.1bn.
That creates a fairly clear market framework:
- If reported results and commentary land comfortably inside (or above) those ranges, the debate shifts to how much upside exists for 2026 and beyond.
- If Rolls-Royce meets but doesn’t exceed expectations, the stock reaction may depend on the quality of the outlook and the pace of capital returns.
- Any sign of cash conversion weakness (working capital swings, delivery delays, or aftermarket disruption) could weigh disproportionately, even if profits look fine.
Market previews have also pointed to expectations for a year-over-year uplift in revenue and earnings power, reflecting the company’s ongoing transformation momentum.
The Big Catalyst: Shareholder Returns and Buyback Talk
One of the most market-moving topics into results is the possibility of another major share buyback.
Reuters reported that Rolls-Royce is expected to announce a new buyback potentially worth up to £1.5bn (around $2bn) alongside annual results, citing a Sky News report. Rolls-Royce did not comment on the report, according to Reuters.
Importantly, Rolls-Royce already confirmed an interim £200m share repurchase programme ahead of the FY25 results.
So, the market will watch for:
- Confirmation of a larger 2026 buyback envelope
- Whether buybacks are framed as structural (repeatable) or opportunistic (one-off)
- Any updated capital allocation priorities (deleveraging, pension considerations, growth capex)
A larger-than-expected buyback can be interpreted as management signaling high confidence in forward cash flows—and it can also provide a mechanical support to EPS through share count reduction.
What the Market Will Listen for on the Call
Beyond headline numbers, Rolls-Royce results days tend to be about drivers rather than totals. Here are the focus areas most likely to shape the post-earnings reaction:
Civil Aerospace: Aftermarket strength and “time on wing”
Civil Aerospace is central to the turnaround narrative, particularly improvements in engine durability (“time on wing”) and the quality of aftermarket economics. Strong flying hours and profitable servicing dynamics have been a key tailwind in recent periods.
Defence: Visibility and margins
Defence demand has been robust across Europe and beyond. Investors will look for margin stability, contract execution, and the durability of order pipelines—especially if governments continue prioritizing readiness.
Power Systems: Data center and energy-related demand
Power Systems has benefited from strong pockets of demand (including data-center-linked applications noted in past reporting).
The market will watch for signs of normalization versus continued momentum.
Strategic investment: UltraFan and funding dynamics
Separate from the results themselves, the Financial Times reported Rolls-Royce lobbying the UK government for support tied to its UltraFan program, a development that could influence long-term product strategy and investment requirements.
Market Expectations: What Could Move Rolls-Royce Shares Next?
Given the elevated expectations, the “most bullish” earnings outcome is usually a combination of:
- Results at/above consensus (especially EBIT and FCF)
- Confident 2026 outlook consistent with (or above) FY26 consensus
- Clear capital return plan, potentially including a larger buyback
By contrast, even a decent print could disappoint if management commentary implies:
- FCF is temporarily inflated (timing-driven) or harder to repeat
- Supply chain issues could reintroduce delivery bottlenecks
- 2026 investment ramps faster than the market expects
Conclusion
Rolls-Royce’s 26 February 2026 full-year results are shaping up as a high-stakes checkpoint for the equity story: the market expects strong profitability and, crucially, strong free cash flow aligned with both guidance and analyst consensus.
If cash generation and capital returns (especially buybacks) come through convincingly, investors may focus more on the forward runway implied by FY26 consensus. If not, sentiment could turn quickly—because the stock’s recent strength suggests “good” results are already partly priced in.
FAQ
When is the next Rolls-Royce earnings release?
Rolls-Royce is scheduled to release its 2025 full-year results on 26 February 2026.
What are analysts expecting for Rolls-Royce FY 2025?
Latest company-published consensus includes £19.61bn underlying revenue, £3.274bn underlying EBIT, and £3.189bn free cash flow, with EPS around 29.0p.
Is Rolls-Royce expected to announce a share buyback?
Reuters reported expectations (via Sky News) for a potential buyback of up to £1.5bn, and Rolls-Royce has already announced an interim £200m buyback programme ahead of results.
Which segment matters most for the earnings reaction?
Civil Aerospace and the quality of aftermarket cash generation typically carry the most weight for investor sentiment, alongside overall free cash flow delivery.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Consider your objectives and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
